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Collapse of the Russosphere - former USSR is officially entering the warlord era

newgrass_c

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Following Russian operational collapse in Ukraine, Azerbaijan is now attempting to invade what remains of Armenia. Since Russia has already made it clear they don't mind their positions there being bombed and they will not honor CSTO's article 4, Turkey and Azerbaijan might turn it into an even more pathetic rump state in the best case scenario and end the existence of Armenia for good in the worst.


Kyrgyzstan is also now attempting to invade Tajikistan. While I find it dubious that they'll go to full-scale war it's entirely within the realms of possibility now.


With how bad the sanctions on Russia are impacting the already fragile Central Asian economies they'll probably engulf in flames, either within themselves or against each other, before China comes in and pacifices the region.

 
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cuneicorn

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I wouldn't underestimate Russia at this point tbh. I'm not sure where you're getting the idea that they're experiencing an "operational collapse" in the Ukraine; my understanding is that Putin reached the limits of what he could accomplish with a SMO and decided NATO hegemony was unstable enough to risk further escalation via conscription. I imagine that from the get-go he knew that more troops would be necessary to fully "de-Nazify" the Ukraine, and decided against going all-in right away just in case the geopolitical situation stabilised in the meantime. I try to read Russian media in addition to Western in hopes that I'll be able to piece together a more accurate picture that way but idk. Everyone lies.

Basically, Putin's hesitance to retaliate against NATO could just as easily be interpreted as a manifestation of justified patience rather than cowardice. Even if America has made itself a laughingstock on the world stage we still possess a ton of hard power, and furthermore our government has become as schizophrenic (i.e. rudderless) as it is openly corrupt. Seems to me like Putin is trying to navigate reasserting Russian regional power without provoking such an intense response from Empire as to lose too much support domestically.

I do think WW3 is most likely to kick off in Central Asia as opposed to the South China Sea, though. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Chinese took advantage of the current chaos under the heavens by reclaiming Taiwan, but I simply can't fathom how America could pursue a real war with them over it on account of how enmeshed we are with them economically, regardless of our superior firepower. Relatively, Russia is a much more reasonable target, and in any case much more historically despised by the people that pass for elites in the West today. As far as I'm concerned, this conflict has been inevitable since the Russians put an end to Americo-Israeli unipolarity in the Mideast during the Syrian Civil War.

My main concern is where Western Europe will end up in all of this. I'm not a Eurasianist, but I fail to understand how freezing all winter and potentially starting WW3 just to keep some ethnic Russians within the American sphere of influence is remotely a good tradeoff for them. I hope to see NATO splinter here similar to when Bush II toppled Saddam to make the Mideast safe for greater Israeli ambitions. Any collateral damage to the EU as a political entity - not the people - is just gravy.