How likely is a second Mexican-American War?

[ビンス]

This sounds crazy at first, I admit, but hold off on commenting until you've heard me out.

I'm not saying I even agree with this idea entirely but I think its an interesting consideration and I wanted to share it.

Before I continue I'm basing this almost entirely off of this video:


View: https://youtu.be/QzmV7fWsdxQ

In summary, a second Mexican-American War could come about by the U.S. intervening in Mexico by attempting to wipe out the cartels and stabilize Mexico.

The reason listed for this are as follows:
- Mexican drugs flooding into the U.S. are killing Americans
- Illegal immigration and asylum seeking are hurting the U.S. economy
- Mexican cartels are said to have infiltrated the Mexican police, military, and government
- Mexican cartels are said to have more control over the country than the Mexican government

The proof provided for this being a possibility is that multiple Republican politicians have expressed interest in attempting this and 4 Republican presidential candidates have made a military intervention in Mexico part of their campaign platform.

How likely do you all think this is? If it does happen, who do you think will win and why? I could easily see this becoming a proxy war between NATO and BRICS before the inevitable World War III.

 

[Pangolin]

I don't think it would go as well as they envision it will.

The republicans are trying to sell the war to the American people on the basis that the cartels are this weak fighting force that is poorly trained, poorly equipped. Maybe there's even some racism hidden in there as well. tl;dr never underestimate the enemy or you will be surprised eventually and take a black eye(nam) or two(afghan), or three(Iraq). But truth is they are trained and equipped far better than the average Talibon. They want to go with the childlike viewpoint that if America just flexes some muscle and flies in and bombs some buildings, or shoots some Tomahawk missiles against designated(somehow?) targets that they can destroy the bases of manufacture of illicit and dangerous narcotics. Even just writing it out it sounds childish and poorly thought out, but that is what resonates with the war-loving segment that wants to relive the glory days of WW2. This isn't WW2 anymore old man, light, heavily mobile infantry that can blend into civilian populations can fight professionalized militaries and deliver decisive victories by choosing when and where to fight and lets not forget how much of an advantage is having troops that believe in their cause and are willing to die for it.

Cartels have a home field advantage, modern communications, modern weaponry(possibly Ukraine surplus too), spies across all levels of the government between both governments, and are exceptionally well funded thanks to the war on drugs (dugs won). They routinely manage to convince border guards to become on-the-take. Even if they do go ahead with this poorly thought out plan what then? Illegal narcotics manufacturing plants are notoriously difficult to find and destroy and it goes without saying that they'd eventually have an intelligence miss and take out a family. Even the United States can barely find all the meth labs within its borders unless they get lucky or they explode.

What then if the US decides to move in with land units? Without the permission of Mexico? Let us dispel the notion that Mexico even has a fighting force. It has an Army, AirForce, and Navy on paper, but its mostly equipped with Junk from the US. The newest and best thing is locally produced rifles and some locally produced ships to patrol coastal waters. In addition to old busted worn out ships from WW2 and Vietnam. Which isn't necessarily bad when your official policy is of neutrality and you don't really have any existential threats to the existence of the state. Really, the biggest threat to the existence of the Mexican state is the United American State. Imagine having to trade with your biggest threat that has openly issued threats against you. It does produce a lot of savings though from not needing a military and military industry and the public funds can be spent on productive things vs being wasted fighting wars that don't need to be fought.

Can't really say how likely a war would be as it depends on if republicans continue to talk about it. It wouldn't be a war per-se but rather the US would try and fail to fight the cartels and a lot of violence would happen across and behind the undefended border. Not really sure what would be the endgame there if they manage to cause the conflict to spiral further out of control. Can the US even really handle a three front war(ukraine, Isreal, Mexico) or would people take advantage of the overextended over-indebited United American State to fulfil their military objectives? What about various radicalized groups inside the US?

 

[切る国]

Mexico, Canada, and Greenland all have their futures under the care of the United States of America. Each will be a single state, with representation in congress equivalent to Rhode Island. In a just world, at least, but not everything in this world is so sweet.

 

[Pangolin]

Mexico, Canada, and Greenland all have their futures under the care of the United States of America. Each will be a single state, with representation in congress equivalent to Rhode Island. In a just world, at least, but not everything in this world is so sweet.

You do know that both of those nations have their own states right? Mexico with 13 Canada with....7? I don't think the United States finishing eating Mexico would go down well.

 

[切る国]

You do know that both of those nations have their own states right? Mexico with 13 Canada with....7? I don't think the United States finishing eating Mexico would go down well.

I do, yes.

 

[Member]

This is a meme. Mexico and the United States have been allies for a long time, and they depend on each other economically. America already helps Mexico fight off the cartels, and a war with Mexico would only worsen immigration as it would encourage even more Mexicans to cross the border since their home country is a war zone. Pretty much every U.S. general knows that an offensive into Mexico would only prove disastrous, imagine the worst of Vietnam and Afghanistan combined.

 

[brentw]

Not going to happen.
Mexico being an unstable hotbed of criminal enterprise serves the aims of too many in Washington.
Particularly those of the Democrat+Neocon+Corpo uniparty.

It helps create the conditions of Anarcho-Tyranny to keep the middle class down.
It drives the mass migration that suppresses wages and deceptively makes GDP numbers go up.
It facilitates easy human trafficking and smuggling, of people and substances, that many hedonistic elites rely on.
etc

Meanwhile the new Trump faction of Republicans, trying to take the party from the neocons, are actually very anti-war and rather isolationist. So even if they do upset the uniparty and take over in 2024, they're unlikely to pursue major military action.

No, all that will happen, no matter who controls Washington, is a series of aid packages that give big bucks to Mexican authorities to purchase a ton of expensive gear from the American military industrial complex. Gear that will be no doubt be used in a showy takedown of some drug lord who the other cartel leaders want to get rid of anyway. In the end effectively changing nothing.