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Pondering a 2nd U.S. "Civil War" - Speculating contributing factors, potential effects, issues with the narrative, and misc thoughts

If the US/West is to spiral into irreversible civil unrest, when (if ever) will it occur?


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SolidStateSurvivor

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Pondering a 2nd U.S. "Civil War" - Speculating contributing factors, potential effects, issues with the narrative, and misc thoughts
A loose collection of theses at best, but more likely borderline schizo tier rambling fueled by sleep deprivation
This is purely hypothetical/based on fringe theory and is not mean to advocate for certain actions (so fuck off glowies)

Something that has been in the back of my mind (and surely on the conscious of many Americans) is the prospect of a 2nd US "civil war" in the near future. It is a predominant headline in the mainstream news (and as we all know the news feels more or less like predictive programming these days.)

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But I don't get the impression that the general public (or rather, media outlets) has quite pondered the true nature of the brewing civil unrest from within. For all this talk they prop up about "civil war" I believe that they fail to realize the prevailing attitude among those seeking succession/conflict is more closely aligned with a revolution rather than warring factions of the pre-established system properly engaging in combat.

Remember, a civil war is the establishment fighting from within for power, waging the countrymen against each other on the behalf of the elite's interests. A revolution is lead by the common man. By that metric, the original US "Revolution" in 1776 hardly constitutes a proper revolution as it was the elites of their day fighting primarily for their own financial interests. For a proper revolution, see The Haitian Slave Revolution of 1791. And in a revolution, you may see separate factions of the people fighting for control among themselves rather than fully uniting against a common enemy.

It is my belief that the pushing of "civil war" headlines in the media is an attempt to ensure the conflict will be peons skirmishing among themselves rather than directing their rightful rage at those at the top leveraging this mess onto the people. A cunning enough politician would be wise to direct this rage at political opposition in a power grab.

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It's a much more complex system now, this is not the 1860's. This is a new era in which globalist hedge funds (Blackrock) managing trillions in assets (including your very culture!) dominate nearly every aspect of the world, to an extent that even the East India Trading Company would be jealous of. International bankers/investment firms are much like a 4th branch of US government, and anyone who has ever threatened this balance of power has been dealt with swiftly. People such as Larry Fink have more control over the world governments then the so called elected officials or common man. Such firms/corporations are the true factions to be rallied against should conflict erupt. If they are not immediately rooted out, then the conflict is doomed to repeat itself. Critics will argue that groups equally as nefarious will simply usurp them, and while that's a possibility, perhaps a violent precedent that removes these self appointed leaders of the past would serve as a vivid warning to those looking to seal the power vacuum.

For a true civil war to start, much like the original civil war it would require corporate backing. The wealthy plantations of the south and connected industries helped finance the south's revolt against the federal government. I don't foresee this occurring this day and age given TPTB's beneficial relationship with the federal government (endless hand outs, tax cuts, etc.) It's too beneficial for them to remain complacent to the US system, which they more or less own at this point.

Indeed, the discontent with the current structure and way of life is from the people, not within system.

The 1st US Civil War was driven on behalf of wealthy slave owners (who were the elites of the south) looking to protect their bottom line. That's not the case with the current discontent, which in its initial stages seems based on ideology rather than profits. Of course there are economic factors at play (especially now with the recession, shortages, and inflation) but the most violent rhetoric seems to surround the cultural decline/shift. This discontent is a burden carried by the common man, on all sides of the political aisle, rather than the elites. For the elites, the general population's grievance is a trivial matter as they have banked profits off of every crises they have passed onto general population. Just look at the Covid lockdowns for instance, the greatest wealth transfer in human history. A majority of the US's recent wars were more or less based on false flags, public deception, and were admittedly lobbied for by those making bank off of our sons and daughters laying down their lives.

And now they have the audacity to insist that it is WE THE PEOPLE that are the issue, rather than them taking accountability for THEIR mess. The World Economic Forum speaks in great deals about the need for the general population to take up bug eating, but one has to wonder why it is they don't cater their events with insects? Do you really think Klaus Schwab dines on grubs, or is he enjoying Matsusaka beef instead? In the era of Zoom (Skype came out in the mid 2000s) why do they feel the need to take private jets to extravagant events paying lip service to climate change? They don't care that we know they're lying. They don't care that their hypocrisy and oppressiveness is out in the open, because they feel they are untouchable, and they govern (un-elected) as such. They feel no accountability, for there is a lack of fear to keep them in check.

This year has already seen several nations collapse to the will of an angry populous, how much longer can the west hold out with the pace they're going at? The west is seeing truckers and farmers, the backbones of society, revolt in small scales. Yet the west remains hellbent on pushing legislation that is self destructive for the common man.

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What the Americans need to realize is that there is already a "cold" civil war, it's been brewing for several years now and some aspects of it are seemingly encouraged from the elites. TPTB have essentially isolated certain sections of the population or actively railed against them utilizing divide and conquer tactics. This includes propaganda outlets such as news/entertainment and academic institutions. It's to their demise that they've inadvertently removed these pacifiers by isolating people (especially young men) who are now more aware then ever of their dystopian reality. In my opinion, this is a byproduct of subversion ala Yuri Bezmenov's theory, but I will refrain from directly attributing this as there are many other factors at play.

By now we have all heard the quote
"hard times create strong men,
strong men create good times,
good times create weak men,
and weak men create hard times."
What the author seems to leave out is that desperate times create chaotic men. Are we not looming towards desperate times (or blissfully unaware that they're already upon us?)

Perhaps we should ask ourselves "how it got to this point?" A time and age where violent internal US conflict no longer feels like a complete crackpot conspiracy but rather a looming inevitability.

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There's many factors, but one in particular I want to highlight is social media's rise to prominence in the public consciousness. Social media has sparked revolts already (Arab Spring) and it's influence can not be downplayed. As much as I loathe this new era of disseminating thoughts, the US clearly understands the importance of keeping social media under control (perhaps because the deep state have used it before to psy-op unrest?) Their futile efforts to suppress dissenting speech and accusations of corruption is proof of this. They think that by censoring people these thoughts will simply go away and be unheard, but the active suppression of speech by both the feds and corporations is only pushing people further to the fringe, bringing an even greater sense of legitimacy to those who believe in fringe theories. (I mean here we all are now after all.)

I would also argue this divide is a direct result of right wing populism manifesting itself around Donald Trump and the MAGA movement. I do not mean to get into Qanon tier nonsense nor do I wish to fully assert that Trump himself caused this, but his rise to power is certainly a contributing factor. Populism in any form has been actively attacked by the US establishment. In the US, the will of the people is not allowed to triumph, unless it is profitable.

The Democrats had populist Bernie Sanders up their sleeves, but squandered his potential by actively subverting their election process. They rigged his elections/campaigns in order to prop up establishment shills like Clinton/Biden. The types that feed the war machine, that go to the World Economic Forum, the same useful idiots that play the game complacently and sell everyone beneath them down the river. RNC tried to get the same types in office with Cruz/Rubio in 2016, but failed because the will of their voter base was too strong or because the RNC was merely power hungry for anyone.

Trump was the only one bold and powerful enough to say what many thought for years, that the mainstream press is complete bullshit and that the state of the union is a disaster. Now that the mask has come off in such a dramatic fashion, is there anyway they can pick up the pieces and continue with business as usual? If anything it seems like the last few years have been an acceleration, they're haphazardly pushing any types of restrictions and propaganda they can because it's become a race against the clock. As time goes on, more and more people are realizing what's really at play, and they simply can not allow that for their own safety.

What I'm sure many would like to know is what would hypothetically be the tipping point that sends the US into a civil war/revolution? Much like you, the reader, I would like to know as well, but unfortunately there is no way of knowing. The US is currently in the slow burn phase, it'll take an unknown spark to truly engulf the nation. 2020 certainly had it's moments between the BLM riots and January 6th. While those did not prove to be the spark, it certainly demonstrated that the supposed law and order holding up society is rather fragile. It can be broken, and it doesn't even require that many people.

29024760-8372737-An_LAPD_vehicle_is_burned_during_protests_that_turned_violent_on-a-2_15909073...jpg


This Great Retribution can begin the moment people will it into existence via holding those in charge directly accountable for their actions. This includes the propagandists, the politicians, the bankers, and everyone in between. They either sold the people/culture out directly, or helped facilitate it via backroom deal making and running cover ups. If they were to be subjected to but a percent of the accountability then blood will flow. Full accountability would be the infliction of indescribable human anguish upon not only them, but their associates and family.

EU nations may be worth keeping an eye on to see where the trends are heading in the US. We are currently seeing projected energy shortages and potential food crises. If they start to break and their ability to take part in the global economy is severely disrupted via civil unrest, then perhaps the US would follow in time.

Something else I would like the reader to keep an eye out for is the US's escalating tensions with Russia/China. The US would rather send an angry population to die on foreign soil rather than risk them lashing out domestically (plus it's good for business!) The US may have to manufacture a foreign crisis to create a collective cause to rally around. Certainly conflict on that scale would help make rationing of basic supplies become more palatable. If I had to guess, the US would prefer war with Russia as they can play into the national mythos of the US fighting "right wing fascism" in the name of a "progressive 'democracy.'"

But will people actually go for a war on a greater scale than that of any other conflict in human history? After an exhaustive (and futile) war on terror, drugs, and Vietnam, the public is rather tired and has awoken to the military industrial complex's wrongdoings. The concept of "false flag" casus belli has been imprinted onto a sizable group of people as well, any escalations, even if seemingly provoked from the opposition side, will be met with skepticism. Of course, anyone claiming differently than the narrative will be vigorously fact checked in the public sphere, rather than the so called journalists applying fact checks to the very people we are lead into believing they safeguard us from.

For anyone who foolishly believes that the police/army would largely protect the interests of the people, rather than TPTB, are mistaken. There has been an active ideological purge of potential dissenters within these factions, the US has been silently prepping for the doomsday scenario of a civil conflict for some time now. These people will largely be loyal to their paycheck providers and little else. Most of the "good guys" have long resigned or been forced out at this point.

Much of the western government has become an entity that actively works against it's own citizens.

In the United States, they can afford to fund impressive social welfare for foreign nations but then choose to give it's own people scraps in comparison.

We have seen public trust and approval in the supposed pillars of society (government, the press, etc) erode into all time lows. People are waking up en masse. While many will continue to remain blissfully unaware and champion the very systems' bringing about their own demise, those that are attuned to the reality of the situation stand a fighting chance at a better future for themselves.

And even if a post-revolutionary west poses the potential for a worse aftermath, for many, the urge to simply lash out in blind rage over perceived past transgressions is becoming all too tempting.


The powers that be want a civil war, but they fear a proper revolution.
 

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№56

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I don't have anything to contribute to this, but I agree that comparing the current US political situation to 1848-1861 is totally ridiculous. We're living in a different country now in every sense of the word - geographically, politically, culturally, etc. I don't know if I agree with your implication that big finance had less political influence back then (or that wealthy southern slave owners were the sole culprits), but the general argument is 100% correct and worth repeating. I can't stand historians who base their careers on going on the news and saying "durr hurr [current event] is ackshually just like [topic I wrote my dissertation on] when you really think about it (please buy my book.)"
As for the future, I'm pretty sure something is going to happen in 2024. There's the election, and I've heard people whose opinion on the stock market I respect associate that date with The Next Recession™. Being more specific than that feels irresponsible. The thought of a second American civil war and the possibility of the US balkanizing both make me sick to my stomach.
 
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I believe one possibility of civil war is the fall of the deep state. I believe that if the clique that is already in danger loses the war that is being fought against better cliques, it will use every means to survive, as its motto says, order through chaos. States like Texas and Florida are fully patriotic and ready for any eventuality, researches have shown that such states are very strong in scenarios of a Russian invasion, why not that these armed masses do not systematically resist. the doctrine of the system, as I have said thousands of times here, is dualism.
 
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I don't believe America will have another civil war. Most young men nowadays (the ones who would be doing the fighting) are simply too fat, apathetic and socially isolated. Also, a proper civil war requires heavy organization on both sides; there would need to be institutions that can provide a clear vision and tangible incentives to the "rebels," and the chance of such organizations being allowed to form is exactly zero. If the federal government exists for no other reason, it's to prevent rival institutions from forming.
On the other hand, a shift to right-wing populist leadership is a likely outcome as the US inevitably descends into conditions resembling those of Brazil/South Africa. I believe some things will get worse, while some things may get better.
 
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I'm not sure really. I don't think we'll have another full on armed conflict again like in the 1860s but rather some small scale conflicts between particular groups. If you go offline and talk to people IRL you'll find that most of the population is level headed and politically moderate, at least a large enough chunk of the population to rule out a full scale war at this point. If there is any conflict it'll likely be between the political extremist bunch while the rest of us just try and get on with our lives. If things in the economic and social sphere continue to degrade I could see some conflict between state governments and the federal government in the coming years but I doubt it would escalate to a military conflict especially when most Americans simply don't give a shit.
 
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To the extent that a conventional civil war is possible I think the mostly likely inciting event would be the Colorado river going dry. Western states could fight for control of the Hoover dam or the federal government and/or a coalition of western states could attempt divert water from the Mississippi which would be met with resistance.
 
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It's gonna be bad yo. Best case scenario at this point is probably insane fuckery during the 2024 election. Voter intimidation, disenfranchisement, possibly an outright steal like Trump attempted recently. I don't think the basic form of the United States will change, or at least not right away. I think if certain entities such as states / large cities don't agree with the election we might see separatists or 2 or more coexisting governments/claimants to the USA. I do believe the biggest divides are cultural, though these issues will be exploited. I'm having trouble making this all coherent, but random thoughts I've had are how much absolute terror an even barely organized movement of guys in pickup trucks with rifles could cause. So I fear Trump or some other person will exploit the cultural divides to just steal the presidency and hold on with terror campaign. How many people would really continue to resist, the first time a protest got shot up by guys in pickup trucks? And if people did resist, then we've just got armed groups of american civilians shooting each other and lynching each other. So Civil Strife if not Civil War is almost guaranteed. Coup of some sort with massive civil strife and an uncertain outcome. Probably some margaret atwood shit, a combination of hand maid's tale and oryx and crake.
 
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I wager it is a low likelyhood event. As long as Joe sixpack can have his beers, entertainment, and steady supply of food. They will never even think of rebelling.

That is not where we are headed, we are headed or already on the path of food shortages, higher gas prices, and unemployment. It requires enough people to be frustrated and tired of the current exploitative system. Certainly the lower echelons of society are tired of the system and how they can barely make ends meet, but the question is does the middle class struggle to make ends meet?

Will close out the thought experiment by implying that any 20 people can collapse a nation if they know where and how to collapse the nation.
 
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My personal prediction for stuff like a second American civil war is thus:
A civil war in any context is very much unlikely in most developed western nations unless the average day-to-day livelihoods of the people are interrupted significantly, America right now is in an interesting position where normally a lot of these gas price hikes and rampant inflation would be quite bad but overall manageable taken the right steps, hell even without taking the right steps most European countries (Greece being one of them because I personally have lived there before) are more or less used to having less that stable economies, however this is where the US is different.

Im sure all of you who discussed such topics have heard people state that the US is similar to the Roman empire and that like the Roman empire it will collapse the same way, Im here to tell you that such a thing will not happen and if does it would be far worse than the collapse of the Roman empire.
America right now is a similar situation as the Romans were before the migration era (basically when the Germanic peoples and tribes decided to some trolling and killed the Western Roman empire) but not the same situation, sure we have mass migration and drug trafficking at the southern border, decedent lifestyle and arrogant privilege, an unstable economy and extreme socio-economic-political stratification but the real issue with America that separates itself from the Roman empire is the rest of the world.

Throughout Roman history never has their really been a strong power to really contend with Roman hegemony, sure there was the Persians and all their subsequent empires (Sassanids, Parthians, etc) and the Germanic Tribes but in the grand scheme of Roman history none really threatened the Empire with complete dissolution, most of those threats came from inside (rebellions, pretender imperators, you get the idea) but now the world 2000 years later is very much different, even small countries like Afghanistan and Vietnam have proven that given sufficient support they can hold off the worlds mightiest military (so long as its a guerrilla war) which brings me to the main focus of what im trying to say here, I mentioned that these small nations would need support to fight off America, well that support comes from the 2 other super powers in the world, China and a Resurgent Russia (you could also include the EU as its own super power but the EU is not a singular nation/entity and there is much discussion to be made if it will centralize into a single state or not).
The 2 powers I mentioned above due to technological advancements since Roman times and the increase in global trade and globalization have more sway on America on a more domestic level, something no one other then the Romans themselves could do to the Roman empire. Couple this and American mass media, government corruption and overreach and you can see why discussions of an American civil war and a political/social culture war is something that should be worrying. Who knows what we really don't know

Tldr: 2nd American civil war is unlikely but not impossible
 
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After seeing the feds label various libertarian groups as potential domestic terrorists including some group related to Betsy Ross I think the far more likely outcome is that the government does some sort of misstep and ends up getting chased out of a particular region via an armed, decentralized, and very angry insurgency.

Nobody in the military will fire on civilians no matter their ideology. Cops want to come home and be off duty, not set their hometowns into a rioting mood. Even the average idiot understands that the media and journalists are to be ignored. Could you imagine some sort of faction in the armed forces that just decides to fire on civilians? Inconceivable. Mega scale tactical error.

High likelihood that there is an armed rebellion against the federal government. Increasing odds as conditions continue to deteriorate (inflation, recession, high gas prices, high food prices). Critical error to let food prices keep rising. Keep Joe six pack boozed and fed and he will never rebel.
 
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After seeing the feds label various libertarian groups as potential domestic terrorists including some group related to Betsy Ross I think the far more likely outcome is that the government does some sort of misstep and ends up getting chased out of a particular region via an armed, decentralized, and very angry insurgency.

Nobody in the military will fire on civilians no matter their ideology. Cops want to come home and be off duty, not set their hometowns into a rioting mood. Even the average idiot understands that the media and journalists are to be ignored. Could you imagine some sort of faction in the armed forces that just decides to fire on civilians? Inconceivable. Mega scale tactical error.

High likelihood that there is an armed rebellion against the federal government. Increasing odds as conditions continue to deteriorate (inflation, recession, high gas prices, high food prices). Critical error to let food prices keep rising. Keep Joe six pack boozed and fed and he will never rebel.
Its likely those same feds are trying to start something by labeling those groups as extremists but wont go anywhere, however the mere fact this is happening is really raising tension on all sides, especially with American mass media just adding fuel to the fire
 
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I have no faith the American military wont fire on civilians. It's such a large country, they will just take boys from say Alabama or Georgia and send them to L.A. or wherever and say - 'those commie homoSEKSHOOLS want to destroy america, if they cross this line, shoot em' and they will. Some dumb 18 year old kids, in a big city and scared will shoot up the scary homeless camp and think it's self defense.
 
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I have no faith the American military wont fire on civilians. It's such a large country, they will just take boys from say Alabama or Georgia and send them to L.A. or wherever and say - 'those commie homoSEKSHOOLS want to destroy america, if they cross this line, shoot em' and they will. Some dumb 18 year old kids, in a big city and scared will shoot up the scary homeless camp and think it's self defense.
I would predict the US military is such a situation would immediately fracture into several factions, some driven by morals, some by freedom, some by greed, or some by some incomprehensible reason, the US military is very large and with America so divided as it is right now so should the military be, so blanket statements don't do any justice to sheer chaos of such a situation
 
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As I stated in my OP, they've been purging the military and law enforcement of potential dissenters for some time now. We've seen how politicized the FBI/CIA/glowie agencies have become, so to think that isn't occuring in the military is ignorance. I tend to agree with @kimochiidango overall but from personal interactions there's still a few good members that know how to stay under the radar. The conservatives waving "back the blue flags" are going to be in for a world of hurt when they realize most the pigs don't back the people.

Florida recently brought their state guard back partially due to the ideological purge going on in the federal military, could be interesting to see what happens with those in a civil war scenario. They report directly to state governors if I recall. Desantis is a very cunning politician, perhaps he senses something is looming.

If you want a real shit show for a potential casus belli, it'd be not only the prospect of Trump getting arrested in Florida, but the use of the state guard to hinder the feds from carrying it out.
 
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W1NTER

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As I stated in my OP, they've been purging the military and law enforcement of potential dissenters for some time now. We've seen how politicized the FBI/CIA/glowie agencies have become, so to think that isn't occuring in the military is ignorance. I tend to agree with @kimochiidango overall but from personal interactions there's still a few good members that know how to stay under the radar. The conservatives waving "back the blue flags" are going to be in for a world of hurt when they realize most the pigs don't back the people.

Florida recently brought their state guard back partially due to the ideological purge going on in the federal military, could be interesting to see what happens with those in a civil war scenario. They report directly to state governors if I recall. Desantis is a very cunning politician, perhaps he senses something is looming.

If you want a real shit show for a potential casus belli, it'd be not only the prospect of Trump getting arrested in Florida, but the use of the state guard to hinder the feds from carrying it out.
Yeah, of all people DeSantis is probably one of the few politicians legitimately preparing for something to happen, as for the military you do make a great point that I had forgotten to factor in that its being ideologically purged to be more loyal to the state (the whole covid vaccine fiasco is a good example), however I do still believe that there are a sizeable amount of military personnel who would be conscious enough to know that the current state that operates the US system are not good people, the mid term elections and 2024 elections are going to be very very interesting and could possibly change the world
 
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the mid term elections and 2024 elections are going to be very very interesting and could possibly change the world
Mid terms will be a red wave if the elections aren't tampered with. Even with gas now coming down a bit from where it was earlier this year it won't be enough. The key thing to watch out for is how many Trump loyalists/election fraud claimers get into office. There's been rhetoric regarding "decertifying" the 2020 results in some states, even if only symbolic that could be a sign of things to come. Both DNC and RNC will be primed to allege fraud and claim a victory in 2024, but Trump's America First republicans are the ones who actually have a gameplan for it.
 
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