Pondering a 2nd U.S. "Civil War" - Speculating contributing factors, potential effects, issues with the narrative, and misc thoughts

[greyetch]

wont happen. all we get is the ever more rapid disintegration of society before china invades

China cannot/will not invade. They have no interest in doing so. It is far more profitable for them, and in line with their ideology, to simply build factories here and have us work them, with the excess capital shipped back to china. This is what they're already doing in Ohio (Fuyao Glass) and all of the ports across Africa.

They are doing their own "colonization". But instead of taking over countries, they just build mines and ports and railways. No need to own the land - land isn't worth much. The mines and ports are all you really need.

 

[zalaz alaza]

China cannot/will not invade. They have no interest in doing so. It is far more profitable for them, and in line with their ideology, to simply build factories here and have us work them, with the excess capital shipped back to china. This is what they're already doing in Ohio (Fuyao Glass) and all of the ports across Africa.

They are doing their own "colonization". But instead of taking over countries, they just build mines and ports and railways. No need to own the land - land isn't worth much. The mines and ports are all you really need.

ya mon i donno, they gonna need to feed their billions somehow eventually

 

[vale-aroma]

David Foster Wallace once compared suicide to a man in a burning building choosing to leap out the window once the flames grow too hot. A civil war too - these things are horrific. Think of yourself, what would you have to lose before you'd kill? How much of your life would have to lose? How hopeless would you have to be for the future, how long without food or electricity, how many people around you killed, how much would you have to either stop caring about the police or how much would they have to retreat into taking a side? For the time being, it doesn't strike me as too likely. The material buffer to the kind of poverty & desperation that leads people to - and this is what's important - have critically low scruples about committing violence - is still quite a ways off. There's far too much to lose for the average person to want to take up arms - there's a reason most crime is committed by people on the absolute margins, career criminals or the homeless.

 

[greyetch]

ya mon i donno, they gonna need to feed their billions somehow eventually

They dont have a blue water navy, they are green water still. But a really good navy for their purposes (patroling south china sea).

So they couldn't even get troops over here. If they need more land (?) they could have a much easier time with Mongolia and Russia. But China isnt really expansionist and I'm not sure why they'd need the USA to feed them? Not trying to be snarky, maybe i just missed something.

Also hope this isn't considered political or against the rules. I'm new hire.

 

[zalaz alaza]

They dont have a blue water navy, they are green water still. But a really good navy for their purposes (patroling south china sea).

So they couldn't even get troops over here. If they need more land (?) they could have a much easier time with Mongolia and Russia. But China isnt really expansionist and I'm not sure why they'd need the USA to feed them? Not trying to be snarky, maybe i just missed something.

Also hope this isn't considered political or against the rules. I'm new hire.

well given the current alliance w russia that seems out of the question. I guess mongolia could work.

 

[greyetch]

well given the current alliance w russia that seems out of the question. I guess mongolia could work.

True, but equally, if not more out of the realm of reality, is an invasion of the US. Because it is physically impossible. The logistics just dont work.

But again, idk why they need to invade anyone? China is huge and has mineral rights throughout Africa. Why do they need more land?

 

[zalaz alaza]

True, but equally, if not more out of the realm of reality, is an invasion of the US. Because it is physically impossible. The logistics just dont work.

But again, idk why they need to invade anyone? China is huge and has mineral rights throughout Africa. Why do they need more land?

in theory the reason is that america has the great plains which could come in quite handy in a post petroleum world. Also, geographically the U.S. is built like a fortress with a large expanse of fertile land enclosed by 2 mountain ranges next to the sea.

you are correct though, it would be a logistical nightmare to pull off

 

[W1NTER]

China cannot/will not invade. They have no interest in doing so. It is far more profitable for them, and in line with their ideology, to simply build factories here and have us work them, with the excess capital shipped back to china. This is what they're already doing in Ohio (Fuyao Glass) and all of the ports across Africa.

They are doing their own "colonization". But instead of taking over countries, they just build mines and ports and railways. No need to own the land - land isn't worth much. The mines and ports are all you really need.

This is correct, as I have said before on this specific forum the only way for America to truly fall is if A) conditions are bad enough that revolution happens within America or B) foreign powers socio-economically and culturally subvert the US and the US population to cause situation A.

China is not a militarily imperialist nation, its an economically imperialist nation, as it has always been throughout history, a military invasion of the US would completely jeopardize any attempts at causing situation B as the US would be united against a common enemy

 

[zalaz alaza]

This is correct, as I have said before on this specific forum the only way for America to truly fall is if A) conditions are bad enough that revolution happens within America or B) foreign powers socio-economically and culturally subvert the US and the US population to cause situation A.

China is not a militarily imperialist nation, its an economically imperialist nation, as it has always been throughout history, a military invasion of the US would completely jeopardize any attempts at causing situation B as the US would be united against a common enemy

i mean for china to invade directly presently would be absolutely ridiculous. i see a few scenarios that could pan out though. first in the case of a civil war we would decimate ourselves and become wide open for any nation or alliance to walk in and take whatever they want. secondly after a long decline a strong nation could look to come in as a savior thus burgeoning their economic imperialism into new geographies

 

[W1NTER]

i mean for china to invade directly presently would be absolutely ridiculous. i see a few scenarios that could pan out though. first in the case of a civil war we would decimate ourselves and become wide open for any nation or alliance to walk in and take whatever they want. secondly after a long decline a strong nation could look to come in as a savior thus burgeoning their economic imperialism into new geographies

yep, a direct invasion of the US is theoretically possible but extremely hard and unlikely, its easier to get a civil war going and to dismantle any powerful institutions (US government and military) rather than face them head on, few have survived the full wrath of the US military and the ones that did either had a geographic advantage or foreign support or both

 

[kimochiidango]

I feel like some people are conflating civil wars with revolutions here. I think a civil war only needs a few bad things to happen. The scenario with a state army preventing an arrest of trump for example is plausible enough. That would qualify as a civil war, and all it needs is for a governor to give an order and for soldiers to obey. If they disobey they are going to jail unless every one of them refuses basically. And why would they really? No one is ordering them to gun down civilians in this example. So they'll do the thing, maybe some small scale fight between us factions with a retreat. And then where are we? A state in open defiance of the feds, shots fired, trump with some kinda claim on the presidency to press. That's a civil war unless the feds give up, then it's a coup or secession i guess? Or maybe a really short civil war if the feds bring enough guns to force the arrest?

A revolution seems unlikely for the reasons people have stated, we might slide into amore open and blatant fascism but most of the population will have jobs and food and just keep their heads down.

EDIT, just want to add that I do think if there were a large conventional war during this hypothetical civil war or revolution you would likely see high desertions and insubordination, more the longer it goes probably, but that happened in our last civil war too, doesnt stop them from happening, just makes a mess.

 

[SolidStateSurvivor]

David Foster Wallace once compared suicide to a man in a burning building choosing to leap out the window once the flames grow too hot. A civil war too - these things are horrific. Think of yourself, what would you have to lose before you'd kill? How much of your life would have to lose? How hopeless would you have to be for the future, how long without food or electricity, how many people around you killed, how much would you have to either stop caring about the police or how much would they have to retreat into taking a side? For the time being, it doesn't strike me as too likely. The material buffer to the kind of poverty & desperation that leads people to - and this is what's important - have critically low scruples about committing violence - is still quite a ways off. There's far too much to lose for the average person to want to take up arms - there's a reason most crime is committed by people on the absolute margins, career criminals or the homeless.

While David Foster Wallace is correct that poor economic conditions are what usually kick off a civil war, I think he underestimates the soul of a nation's people and how commodified hatred/anger has become in the era of algorithms. The US is no stranger to lone wolves from middle class backgrounds snapping violently. There is an ever growing sense of deep resentment among Americans towards each other. A prominent enough leader could easily take advantage of these types to pursue power, and once the ball is rolling we are unfortunately all too aware of the copycat effect. Biden's greatest failure will not be the poor state of the economy or the withdrawal from Afghanistan, it will be his inability to live up to his promises of bridging the gap and re-uniting the country, regardless of political differences. In fact, feels like they've almost deliberately done the exact opposite of that, especially with the Trump/FBI raid getting people all fired up. I feel that a second US civil war could be possible in an economy that is "mid" at best. There's plenty of people on both sides either looking for an excuse or simply want to see the world burn.

B) foreign powers socio-economically and culturally subvert the US and the US population to cause situation A.

That is currently being carried out, quite successfully. In my opinion it has gone better than anyone could've imagined. From my own point of view the status quo of western culture has become so insane that it just feels like one long fever dream filled with terrible jokes. But to dismiss it all as originating in foreign nations outside of the US is where I disagree. I have heard this talking point before and it feels like propaganda to hold anyone else accountable other than Americans themselves. Perhaps the initial seeds were sowed from outsiders like Yuri Besnov suggests (Soviets, Chinese, the Jesuits!! idk) but it certainly goes in line with why all these communist LARPers think that it's a super progressive system that will let them live easily as gender study scholars (ironically D.I.E. types only exist because such a level of needless bloat is only possible in a system as flawed as excessive globalist capitalism) but these days most of the subversion is pushed internally from academia and this new age of woke pandering elites.

Or maybe a really short civil war if the feds bring enough guns to force the arrest?

Depends, if the state is willing to defy the feds on something as big as the hypothetical scenario you presented, then who's to say they'd even bother prosecuting citizens working on their own accord to achieve a similar end goal? If one state were to set the precedent, then not only will some of it's citizens follow, but perhaps like minded states as well.


To those who believe China or a traditional foreign adversary would attempt a direct land invasion, even during a civil war to strike at a moment of weakness, I just don't see that being a possibility at all. If anything, it's the UN "peacekeepers" fighting on behalf of the feds one would have to keep an eye on as the real invaders.

 

[W1NTER]

Perhaps the initial seeds were sowed from outsiders like Yuri Besnov suggests (Soviets, Chinese, the Jesuits!! idk)

This is kinda what I was meaning, the cold war was unique in which propaganda on both sides became so enticing and powerful that likely the Soviets managed to essentially plant the seed for western self-hatred/self-righteousness which was then exemplified further when the Soviet Union collapsed which left the US the only standing superpower in the world, its very interesting and dangerous how Western society is so split on being either extremely self-hating or egotistical with its past and present actions, not a good mix

 

[SolidStateSurvivor]

its very interesting and dangerous how Western society is so split on being either extremely self-hating or egotistical with its past and present actions, not a good mix

Considering the dialect around US history has traditionally been based on self-righteousness (and more recently self hatred) can't say I'm surprised. The thing is, a productive nation needs to believe they're the best to do their best. If one is lead to feel inherently guilty or even shameful for the society they've built, then what is the incentive to maintain it? If anything there is a greater incentive to destroy it. Ideally such a propaganda effort would not tote arrogance over accomplishment (aka the current American way) and would be capable of conversations based around the errors in their ways and other outstanding issues, but it seems everyone bends the knee for the slightest perceived injustice, no matter how petty the issue or small the complaining group, at the very least as a way to deflect from far greater issues. Again, this is divide and conquer tactics amplified following the Occupy Wall Street movement.

 

[Hadrian Hardrada Cicero]

a direct invasion of the US is theoretically possible but extremely hard and unlikely

Geography aside you need to consider the fact that the civilian population aren't going to go down with a fight. Despite the memes and shit we can form militias still and likely will defend or aide the US Armed forces to give them much needed time to recuperate if shit goes bad.

 

[Hadrian Hardrada Cicero]

If one is lead to feel inherently guilty or even shameful for the society they've built, then what is the incentive to maintain it?

Pretty much one of the core messages of the ill-fated Political Juice's second magna opus: The Importance of Civil Society. To be honest, one can look at the US' self-suffocating problems as "oh X group did this" or "X nation did this to subvert everyone" and while that's true, it's a little disingenuous if you ask me when you need to consider that it is the citizens-- who are now the elderly-- in past half century themselves that decided to indulge in this stuff and the next three generation (us included) are no better.

There's also the fact that Socialism/Communism/Marxism in America isn't new either. Not even to the boomers' time. Documents indicate that these people had existed as far back as the mid-19th century where interestingly concepts such as Social Justice, Progressivism, and Free Love (Love based on Sex) began to emerge around here in not only the US but in Europe such as Britian too. There are some books I can suggest that talks about the history of these stuff. Very interesting stuff.

Honestly in regard to the thread, I don't see a civil war happening and I don't think a civil war will happen. I don't get why so many retards online want to see the US rip itself apart when they're going to be affected as well. Yeah, there are points and incidents here that might suggest it'll happen, but it won't. I do not see the average citizen willing to kill another citizen over something petty as politics can be.

In fact, the average citizen doesn't even want to resort to that and if anything, are calling for fairer grounds but the more radical and staunched folks, who had been drunk with unchecked power both online and later in higher positions in government offices in the past nine - coming on ten) years, don't want to relinquish that power and face the consequences of their actions (I'm looking you fuckers who participated in the Gamergate, Social Justice, "Third Wave" Feminist, and Identity movements)

Right or left, these people who are staunch on everything are just the same pathetic disillusioned losers who done nothing with their lives and see no value in themselves and wish to bring everyone down to their level and honestly this is why I do not see a potential "Second US Civil War" because as long as people just ignore them and press harder on their beliefs to a breaking point (to BOTH political wings that edge extreme) and kick them out of institutions they CLEARLY do not belong then the thoughts of a civil war 2.0 would've been nonexistent.

I apologize for the double post; I really don't like these topics honestly since they're largely doomposting and are extremely hyperbolic in my opinion. I may have interrupted the flow here because I didn't read everyone's post so again; I apologize.

 

[Still a Youth]

guess this is a good place to post this. seems as though anti-feds are making lots of noise

FBI and DHS warn threats to federal law enforcement have spiked since Mar-a-Lago search

An FBI and Department of Homeland Security intelligence bulletin advised officials that the threats are coming from online and other platforms, two senior law enforcement officials said.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Xovi]

all I know is that America is approaching its final years, its very tough to see it go through. Like others said in this thread the American Military is disemboweled and embarrassed. I guess a proper term would be neutered (Especially in the officer ship). I may sound schizophrenic as fuck and I may be rambling for the first time in agora. But imagine countries as organisms, they start off young and vulnerable, grow into adolescent and become risky, become matured and knowledgeable, middle aged and comfortable, and then become elderly and weak. America may or may not go into a Civil War. But it is obligated to turn into something new from the ashes of the United States. The innerworkings of the country is butchered. I would have loved to fight for this country, but it is not the country the youthful me once thought it was. With that being said I know the country is going through a transitional period the same way Republican Rome turned into the Roman Empire. Best make sure that it turns into something you would want your children and yourself to be proud of.

 

[SolidStateSurvivor]

guess this is a good place to post this. seems as though anti-feds are making lots of noise

FBI and DHS warn threats to federal law enforcement have spiked since Mar-a-Lago search

An FBI and Department of Homeland Security intelligence bulletin advised officials that the threats are coming from online and other platforms, two senior law enforcement officials said.

www.nbcnews.com

Oh those poor, poor bastards.....funny enough even Grand Theft Auto Online is letting the jokes surrounding false flags and conspiracies run wild since the most recent update. Considering this may as well be the most popular game at the moment, it is nothing to dismiss. It's an open secret the elections have always been a joke and that false flags are just a "wonderful" part of the democratic process.

 

[SolidStateSurvivor]

There's also the fact that Socialism/Communism/Marxism in America isn't new either. Not even to the boomers' time. Documents indicate that these people had existed as far back as the mid-19th century where interestingly concepts such as Social Justice, Progressivism, and Free Love (Love based on Sex) began to emerge around here in not only the US but in Europe such as Britian too. There are some books I can suggest that talks about the history of these stuff. Very interesting stuff.

Funny enough, the boomers insist their kids go through the bullshit of college and pay for it!! Fucking retards...

I know you're quite the doomer on this civil war scenario, but c'mon now don't act as if the slightest touch of vengeance on the elites wouldn't be such an enticingly sweet sip. You can apply the derogatory labels of your past post onto me for all I care, but to catch but a glimpse of the overlords dangling for air upon a street light sounds oh so joyful