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Pondering a 2nd U.S. "Civil War" - Speculating contributing factors, potential effects, issues with the narrative, and misc thoughts

If the US/West is to spiral into irreversible civil unrest, when (if ever) will it occur?


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Descarte Yee

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Let's be honest, gentlemen -at least 50% of burgers on this forum right now would die in the event of a civil war. Minimum, of course.
 
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Orlando Smooth

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I keep hearing this talking point but I personally doubt it. If this was any other candidate I could maybe see this swaying voters, but I don't know anyone who didn't vote for Trump in 2020 going "oh shit this is fucked up I'm gonna vote for him now."
No way. There's tons of people who are of the "I'd never want to have Trump as a guest in my house, but I hate the democrats" variety. These are people who happily voted for Bill Clinton, Bush in 2004 because terrorism, and Obama, but deeply hate what the cultural left has become. These are the people that don't necessarily want to vote for Trump because they think he's a gross person, but do so because he's the only one that actually smears the left in a way that resonates with average people. Keep in mind that Trump actually got more total votes in 2020 than 2016, gained ground in every single demographic except college educated white men in the same timeframe, and lost by a very slim margin in 2020. This absolutely works in his favor as it's the proof purchase that the justice system has become weaponized by the political establishment generally, and the left most glaringly. This is a George Soros funded DA! People are not too stupid to realize that.

The other difference is that while Trump and Biden's disapproval ratings are roughly the same, Trump supporters would literally die for him while the democrats feel "meh" at best about Biden. And there's no one else waiting in the wings for the left who commands levels of support on par with Trump.

You're right about this though:
If anything it's the Biden administration's general incompetency that would sway voters, economy is shit right now.
The point is, the cultural left and the democrats have seemingly done everything in their power to make Trump win again in 2024.
 
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SolidStateSurvivor

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These are the people that don't necessarily want to vote for Trump because they think he's a gross person, but do so because he's the only one that actually smears the left in a way that resonates with average people.
I feel like these people would be more likely to either vote third party or not vote at all though?
This absolutely works in his favor as it's the proof purchase that the justice system has become weaponized by the political establishment generally, and the left most glaringly. This is a George Soros funded DA! People are not too stupid to realize that.
A lot of the people I know just see it as further proof that he's a criminal, I get the impression anyone already aware of the shit Soros pulls in the US weren't going to vote dem/Biden anyways.
 
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xdsoftware

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Indictment is a go, guess the question now is if he'll willingly turn himself in?View attachment 58255
This is starting to sound like a stupider version of the Yulia Tymoshenko goes to jail for supposed abuse of power but not really situation.
Can't wait until people start to notice that this is likely politically motivated
 
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Orlando Smooth

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I feel like these people would be more likely to either vote third party or not vote at all though?
So if they were either going to vote 3rd party or not vote, but see this, get mad, and vote for Trump that's in his favor.
A lot of the people I know just see it as further proof that he's a criminal, I get the impression anyone already aware of the shit Soros pulls in the US weren't going to vote dem/Biden anyways.
The thing is, this case was already dismissed years ago now. They found some technicality to not only revive the case but elevate it to a felony charge when it's normally prosecuted as a misdemeanor in NY. Of all the the things Trump is being investigated for presently, this is by far the weakest possible charge. If they had half a brain cell to share amongst themselves they'd have prioritized the Dominion lawsuit as well as the GA county one where he instructed the local official to "find the votes."

I won't ask you to doxx yourself but I'm curious what circles you are in that people who are theoretically swing voters are viewing this as "further proof that he's a criminal." The only people I know (or have even heard of) who see it that way were never going to vote for him anyways.
 
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SolidStateSurvivor

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I won't ask you to doxx yourself but I'm curious what circles you are in that people who are theoretically swing voters are viewing this as "further proof that he's a criminal." The only people I know (or have even heard of) who see it that way were never going to vote for him anyways.
I've only had a few friends, Floridians in their mid-20s, to base it off of so far, they're not particularly into politics and by all accounts are "normies."
But perhaps my judgement is off, comment sections seem to reflect your sentiment. Spoke with a relative who has always hated Trump but even they find this whole thing ridiculous, but I doubt it'd be enough to push them to vote for him.

DeSantis is telling New York to fuck itself

View: https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1641575007552778243?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Throwback to a post I made on Aug 12, 2022:
If you want a real shit show for a potential casus belli, it'd be not only the prospect of Trump getting arrested in Florida, but the use of the [Florida] state guard to hinder the feds from carrying it out.
 
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SolidStateSurvivor

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Trump says he'll go willingly to New York, I think he's giving a speech back in Florida after.
Marjorie Greene Taylor has a counter protest planned across the courthouse, maybe I can finally microwave that popcorn come Tuesday...
trump_leaving.PNG
 
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no_chill

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Nah, mutts will never do anything. They rather sit on their fat arses and go on about muh guns and "once it reaches muh suburbs" etc. If covid protests were anything you could use to give an estimate than we look at probably a few thousand people that would do something.
 
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View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRVgsn59WSs&t=430s


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7P09C_yQP7Y


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7yn_LmJags


View: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/S5Moq3ABrXM


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOYxN_a7zL4



ok, they are libertarians, but can do videos, unless they got flaws, idk. if opposite could made *those*, then lets go
 
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punishedgnome

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While I don't think a second Amerian Civil War is impossible, I don't think it's going to happen in the current era where people who basically do nothing can still afford to rent a room, play video games, watch TV and stuff their face with cheap pizza. Even with the current run of inflation, someone with a shitty part time jobs can pick up a pizza at Dominos and binge watch shitty TV in a warm bed for hours on end. People with that level of creature comforts aren't going to get riled up enough to risk getting shot at unless they're addicts, mentally ill or stupid.

If something huge like housing fell apart to the point where you ended up with a large class of homeless working people who are not mentally ill or addicts, I think a huge conflict would be more likely. I don't think things are that dire yet, though. I think they are merely at the point of "I have to take on debt to stay in my warm bed" as opposed to "I cannot afford a warm bed period." I think governmet knows this and will do just enough to make sure you can stay in your warm bed, eat pizza and watch Netflix if you're a good boy who behaves himself.
 
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SolidStateSurvivor

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If something huge like housing fell apart to the point where you ended up with a large class of homeless working people who are not mentally ill or addicts, I think a huge conflict would be more likely. I don't think things are that dire yet, though.
With there being rumblings of major foreign powers (Russia, China, India, etc) abandoning USD as the standard, could something like that possibly lead to the situation described above? US has historically seen periods of economic downturn/social unrest, but we don't really have a precedent for that sort of situation.
 
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punishedgnome

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With there being rumblings of major foreign powers (Russia, China, India, etc) abandoning USD as the standard, could something like that possibly lead to the situation described above? US has historically seen periods of economic downturn/social unrest, but we don't really have a precedent for that sort of situation.
It's hard to tell. The thing is, the US and Canada together is over 12% of the world's landmass while having just around 6% of the world's total population. Canada alone has 7% of the world's drinkable water. Parts of Canada and the US are sitting on an abundance of oil and minerals. They functionally work as a single economic unit and there are more than enough resources between the two to keep everyone in either country relatively comfortable. I'm not so sure either country needs China or India for anything other than cheap labour. Even if there was an economic depression, with today's tech, notably better than it was in the 1930s, the low population density in North America and the abundance of arable land between the US and Canada, I find it hard to believe wide-spread starvation would be on the table unless something totally retarded happens like government nationalizing all farmland, like the Soviet Union, or a nuke glassing the prairies and destroying all the good farmland.

I just have a hard time believing things will reach the point in the US or Canada where a reasonably competent person won't have to option to go to their room, cover up in a warm blanket, watch tv/play vidya and eat pizza barring some cataclysmic disaster. I think as long as people can do that, full-scale civil war is extremely unlikely.
 
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housepoopr

Nah, mutts will never do anything. They rather sit on their fat arses and go on about muh guns and "once it reaches muh suburbs" etc. If covid protests were anything you could use to give an estimate than we look at probably a few thousand people that would do something.

How sad it is. I don't doubt this is the case. The government has shown that the intellegence agencies exist to suppress the right and support the leftists insurrections. When leftists storm congress, or state congresses, to stop the passage of a bill, it's a historic struggle against tyranny.

If you're on the right it's a treason and they'll hunt you down like a dog, perp walk you, and at a minimum destroy your reputation and harass your family. It's only an insurrection when the right does something. That poor little granny with the flag and the smile got treated like Osama Bin Laden.


What do you do when the insurrection already took place, it was a legal insurrection, and the subversives are no longer outside the system, but run and operate the system? You know what I mean.
 

Regal

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it was a legal insurrection

Insurrections are always illegal. I think you're looking for "protest." Protest is legal, but once you bring violence against the government it becomes insurrection. The government would never allow for a legal insurrection against itself.
 
The government would never allow for a legal insurrection against itself.
yes. undermines validity and solution-making
 
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SolidStateSurvivor

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but once you bring violence against the government it becomes insurrection based
fixed it for you

The government would never allow for a legal insurrection against itself.
In theory the US constitution allows for some forms of this, and at the very least clearly establishes its righteousness in the preamble, however like you said in practice it is forbidden.
In terms of relevancy not even like the constitution matters though, it's merely a source of rhetorical arguments that less and less people care about.
 
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no_chill

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rhetorical arguments

This. I can tell you from Yugoslavia that a civil war does not happen with like a group of righteous people connecting in the underground like its a movie.

They start on football fields, in pubs, on the road. Suddenly the usual discussion inside the pub turns violent and in case of yugoslavia people from different religion or cultural region start fighting over seemingly nothing. Than during a regional football much between a team based in the North against a team based in the south the referee favours a side and enraged fans start getting violent, throw stuff at the referee and the other team and then just start fights with the opposing fans, etc etc. Until a point where people with some authority and power openly pick a side and e.g. the battalion commander that is croatian and commands croatian troops order an alert and for everyone to come back to croatian lands with their equipment. Than of course the serbs hear this and do the same, the bosnians notice troop movement and do the same etc etc rinse and repeat and then at a very crucial point, perhaps when soldiers of the army but different culture meet someone has a loose finger, is too upset or is just at his limits shoots at the other.
Than their is civil war.

I really advise anyone to read up on the characteristics of what lead to the yugoslavian civil war. Preferably, if you can ask actual people from yugoslavia that would be the best. I did so, since we have many refugees that settled here after the war.

Up until the very crucial point, and my parents were in yugoslavia in the 90s, you dont notice anything. You only notice that the checkpoints urge you to not stray around outside the towns and streets and perhaps some might tell you to go home. But it becomes increasingly eerie and abandoned.

There is no grand scheme or grand organisation. Because everyone already knows who is on his or her side and seeks them out when the first rumours of mutiny or major disagreements circle around.
 
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manpaint

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From the perspective of a dude living in Quebec, I think your country is highly polarized. Now, all my info on the USA is from the internet, so I assume my perspective is a bit deformed (as only the bad parts are shown), but damn seeing all those sentiment on Agora makes me feel like I live in a parallel dimension where everything is fine lol.

I don't think a civil war would start soon, but if nothing is done to correct the awful tribalism going on I would expect serious trouble in like 10 years.

I really wonder what makes America so different than us considering our state is basically a slightly different variation of the USA. The only real difference I can think off is the fact that the slient revolution happened - an event in summer of '60 where people started giving a fuck about religion because cinema became a thing. Historically speaking religion was imposed on us by the governement whereas in America it is practiced by the choice of the people. Maybe the fact we avoided that giant conservative vs liberal clash is what changed everthing.
 

SolidStateSurvivor

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Because everyone already knows who is on his or her side and seeks them out when the first rumours of mutiny or major disagreements circle around.
Kind of felt that way during covid/the lockdowns, or is it just me?

Maybe the fact we avoided that giant conservative vs liberal clash is what changed everthing.
As an American looking in it seems like Canada avoided that at the expense of becoming a liberal totalitarian nation, with that puppet Trudeau really accelerating things.
d1d417b5-d575-4981-a50d-0b8dacfb0664-large16x9_Screenshot20230405at11.14.11AM.png
 
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