Pondering a 2nd U.S. "Civil War" - Speculating contributing factors, potential effects, issues with the narrative, and misc thoughts

[Hypatia]

I think there will be civil conflict in the 2040s, however, I don't think it will be a full Civil War like there was in the 1860s. Unlike the past, people in the US are not separated by geographic boundaries, but municipal. If Texas was to succeed from the Union, what the heck would it do with Austin? The majority of Pennsylvania land wise leans conservative, but you are ignoring the massive city of Philadelphia. Any conflict would end up looking like the Syrian Civil War, were the country breaks up into a dozen pieces. There are only two ways it goes, the United States either looses some states outright in turmoil, but not the majority of the country, or everywhere revolts simultaneously leaning to the complete dissolution of any large governing body.

Why the 2040s? The end of the system is in the 2050s, the 2040s are the crisis point where the contradictions are becoming insurmountable. The United States is actually very good at self propagating itself despite all of people's nihilism of its role (it isn't the superpower of the planet for no raisin after all), so its going to hold out until it breaks.

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My personal favorite headcannon for the future of the United States is that Canada gets annexed by the United States in the next few decades, but avoids the complete systematic collapse of the rest of the new Union plus new England and a few other states. The new capital of the "United States" ends up becoming Ontario. Canada will actually be doing pretty well by the end of the century due to climate change ironically. But this might be the future alt history nerd in me going too far lol

 

[Caspar]

Many wish they had been born somewhere else or wish they had been born during the 50's or 60's. [...] False platitudes like "just work harder" are easily dismissed because we can see through the gaslighting and none of us want the "reward" that our country offers us. So as far as a civil war going on, I have no idea if it'll be real or fake.

I feel very similarly except that, just owing to who I am, I don't get depressed, I get angry. If a civil war kicks off, real or fake, I'll be an active participant. I want the union to end. I don't care about 'the South' or any some such, I just want a country for me and mine, where I can actually have autonomy and have freedom over my own destiny.

I think alot of the reason the US is how it is, is because we live under a gerontocracy. If you look at history, many many great leaders were young - most often in their 30s. Audacity, spirit, and the ability to inspire others doesn't come from 80 year olds (except perhaps to other fucking 80 year olds - ala Trump). They broke the birthrates with feminism/contraception/irreligiosity and then, with fewer young people and lopsided demographics, the boomers have maintained a stranglehold on power (since they outnumber the succeeding generations) all whilst importing foreigners to make up for the kids they never had thus further dividing the country after themselves. All while selling our industry abroad to enhance their own wealth thus destroying the future wealth of America... Did I mention this stuff makes me irate?

I don't care about the 6 figures I make from my job, even though my job is quite good. I don't care about the Kabuki theatre that is politics. I want my own slice of land where I get to be free to exercise my vision of what life should be, not that of the neoliberal boomers.

 

[WhiteSnake]

Do not make the mistake of thinking that america, as it currently exists, will continue to be the same in the future. There's a lot of different options, but the least likely path is that America retains it's basic shape and ideology.

I am of the personal belief that this country is due for a collapse soon. How soon, I have no clue and frankly neither does anyone else except some strategist hidden in a government bunker in the middle of bum fuck nowhere.

I am also of the personal belief that, there is a good chance this country could collapse into becoming a fully feudal empire with a collection of warring landlords.

 

[Dead Star]

Like most talk about a 2nd civil war, this is mostly fantasy and doomposting.

It would take at least 20 more years of full on polarization culturally and politically combined with an epic economic disaster that makes Americans more poorer.

Study civil wars in the past half century and you'll notice this is the recipe for them. People aren't going to fight each other if there is a high standard of living. When people become poorer and lose all faith and trust in how government functions, then the possibility of civil conflict arises.

America has survived far worse than the last 5 years. It is a hyperbole how people hype up the 2020 BLM riots and Trump elections as being a prelude to potential civil war.

Do some digging in the 60s and early 70s. The polarization in that period was unreal and far worse than what it is today. Everything in America changed around the mid 60s. The long hot summer of 1968 makes the 2020 BLM riots look tame in comparison, cause it didn't stop. Left wing groups further radicalized in the early 70s and committed domestic terrorism. BLM didn't get radical enough to bomb police stations like the Weather Underground did, and that movement has mostly fizzled out since the leadership were all grifters.

Despite the chaos of the early 70s, America survived and didn't fall into a civil war. That's a testament to how strong our standards of living are, and that was also in an era of bad economics. Nixon used price controls to try to handle the rising costs. Inflation would spiral out of control in the late 70s during Carter's presidency, and yet there still wasn't a civil war.

You could even go back further than this. Some of the worst race riots and cultural issues in American history go back to 1919 and through the 20s and 30s. We did survive the Great Depression and thankfully didn't fall into a chaotic communist revolution.

A fact that few people seem to want to acknowledge is that America still has higher standards of living compared to the rest of the world. It's laughable that people ignore this and talk about there being some collapse in the future. You don't know poor until you've seen what other countries are like.

If you want to see countries that actually could fall into civil wars in the next decade or so, look to Europe and possibly the UK.

In Europe, there is a literal de-growth movement. The countries have become poorer in the last 5 years. The UK has this problem too (no country is a better example of de-growth economics than England). The media focused on the "far right racism" during the recent British riots, but spoke nothing of how economic conditions have worsened so bad there. The whole 'Europoors' meme has to do with how poor those countries are becoming, cause their governments just tax people to death and have overregulated all industries. This is one half of the problem.

The other half of the problem is the elephant in the room the media rarely wants to talk about - mass migration. Turns out that when you import in millions of people from hostile middle eastern countries and then protect them when they commit crimes, it creates major cultural issues. The #1 reason the far right parties are on the rise across Europe has to do with migration. This is another topic of discussion though, but my point remains. Europe is in serious trouble and their governments will face an uphill battle in the next decade.

All of this with Europe is a different topic though, so I won't go further.

America will be fine. We've survived worse stuff before. Study American history and you'll be surprised at how strong the spirit of this country truly is.

 

[SparkyWilson]

The other half of the problem is the elephant in the room the media rarely wants to talk about - mass migration. Turns out that when you import in millions of people from hostile middle eastern countries and then protect them when they commit crimes, it creates major cultural issues. The #1 reason the far right parties are on the rise across Europe has to do with migration. This is another topic of discussion though, but my point remains. Europe is in serious trouble and their governments will face an uphill battle in the next decade.

Mainstream media in Europe and Canada are starting to talk more openly against mass immigration when they realized its not solving the "Demographic" problem and boosting the economy in the way they want it, on top the public sentiment turning on immigration. Now you're starting to have left leaning political party's turn on immigration as well. A few weeks ago Justin Trudeau said that 4.9+ million people are going to have to leave when their work\student visa expire(that's 10% of Canada population), while hinting they might let Ukrainian Refugees settle. I maybe to optimistic but it seems like the progressive left is cluing into the fact that cretin Cultural - Religious groups don't belong in the west in large numbers.

 

[Dead Star]

Mainstream media in Europe and Canada are starting to talk more openly against mass immigration when they realized its not solving the "Demographic" problem and boosting the economy in the way they want it, on top the public sentiment turning on immigration. Now you're starting to have left leaning political party's turn on immigration as well. A few weeks ago Justin Trudeau said that 4.9+ million people are going to have to leave when their work\student visa expire(that's 10% of Canada population), while hinting they might let Ukrainian Refugees settle. I maybe to optimistic but it seems like the progressive left is cluing into the fact that cretin Cultural - Religious groups don't belong in the west in large numbers.

Some irony coming from Trudeau when immigration exploded under his watch. Century Initiative sounds like some conspiracy theory, and yet this was the main lobbying group and policy makers for his admin on immigration. Canada is in far worse shape than the US, and this isn't even getting into how the woke stuff is so out of control there.

It's amusing that they're admitting it's a problem now after years in the mainstream media discarding all of this talk as lies, conspiracies and racism. Then they wonder why people are tuning out and not wanting to listen to them.

Here in the US, some Democrats in states like New York and Jersey were running as border hawks in their ads. It's a big deal here, but I think the damage is so much worse in European countries.

The problem for left parties is that the average voter whom they think is dumb as a rock, looks at the last several years and sees where these problems happened when they were in office. In the US, this is what drags down normal Democrats.

I want to see Democrats moderate themselves and move back to the center on key issues, including immigration. I fear that will be an uphill battle that takes some years, cause they've allowed progressives to cannibalize so much of the party. It's the same thing with how MAGA overtook Republicans. The crazies are so deeply entrenched in the party, it will probably take another election cycle of losing to get them out.

 

[SparkyWilson]

n. Canada is in far worse shape than the US, and this isn't even getting into how the woke stuff is so out of control there.

Yeah it is, Canada did alright with inflation after covid being on par with the US(Around 3.5%), but right now a lot of the economic problems that have been bubbling below the surface for decades are starting to come up. Back in 2018 a friend of mine who works in high finance with some firm based out of Texa's said not to invest money into Canada and that his Firm and several others were in the process of divesting from Canada because the economic outlook of the country did not look good. The sudden surge in immigration was desperate attempt to try and inflate GDP numbers and offset a recession. However as it is unemployment is at 6.8% nationality(Higher in areas where is there high immigration) and productivity keeps dropping, and with all this cretin lobby groups keep saying there is a labor shortage.

My best guess is that they plan on deporting a large chuck of temporary residents over the next 3-4 years and ramping up oil production to keep money flowing into various government expenditures and hopefully they reinvest some of that money

Here in the US, some Democrats in states like New York and Jersey were running as border hawks in their ads. It's a big deal here, but I think the damage is so much worse in European countries.

Its worse in Europe because migrates all end up in ethic/religious enclaves and they let in a bunch of criminals from middle east which end up being breeding grounds from crime and extremist. Even in Europe you're starting to see shifts in immigration policy(on both the left and right) after Gert Wilders party won the dutch election and the rising support for party's like the AfD and RN, and similar party's either winning or coming in second place across Europe.

A bit of a flash back, back in the late 80's and early 90's Denmark was pushing for mass immigration and calling anyone who opposed it "Racist", this worked until the Danish peoples Party won(not sure of the year) but after that you saw a complete 180 on immigration in Denmark from both and left are right and they keep going farther on it.

 

[Nyx9572]

civil war will happen if they bring back the draft