the coming famine

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It amazes me the thread has made it this far without anyone mentioning the work of Peter Zeihan

Was following this guy some months ago. Tangential review of his last book if anybody is interested:

I've read half of his book The end is the beginning is the end, it's very long. The first chapters are the most interesting as he lays out the already starting collapse of globalization as we know it. He does a panning of the history of human settlements in relationship with natural resources.

He then goes into most recent history, with the world wars and into USA pact -forgot the name- with Europe countries to maintain a commercial alliance and naval protection that gave rise to globalization as we know it today. He then goes to into chapters telling how fragile and about to collapse is everything, from transport, oil reserves, demographic replacement levels, etc.

You don't get the sentation that the guy is bullshiting when he talks about how oil refineries are custom to specific types of soil and take 10 years to change, or chinese naval capacity to defend themselves of pirates, the complexities of natural gas transport.

The book is not perfect though, his prose is the most >redditcostanzayeahrightsmirk-iest and insufferable to read. He writes, well, like this <- he does this, well, every two sentences. Or things like "China is gonna China because communism.". He mentions Germs, Cum and History book as inspiration and now I wonder if that one is also written in that shitty prose.

His most controversial take is the complete fragmentation and dissapearence of China as a superpower along with other countries in the upcoming decade. I've seen lots of interviews with him and people inquire about this the most since It's hard to believe. Whenever you put China on Google/Youtube you get flooded with images of Dubai-like opulence and RGB LEDed tech progress, Tencent gaming technodrome stadiums, train stations, bullshit smartcities, etc.

And the whole take also constrasts with his pro USA stance as the collapse of globalization would see USA and a couple of countries -included Argentina hahaha- rise in a more localized simpler economy system.

The 2nd half of the book goes through most important traded natural resources and goes through the logistics, how much is left of it. This part of the book is too dense and I suppose more akin to his main job of consulting farmers and industry organizations.

He leaves the gruesome famine last and goes to which countries will dissapear and which ones will thrive, he then maps some possitive uses of the tech in the future, like AI crop strand recognition and individual fertilizing pesticidizing.

Sadly he was given media focus appraisal a couple months ago, the guy went on Rogan, which acts as some barometer of legitness now, and striked as an overconfident bowtied bafoon. He speaks in a rehearsed skype consultant way -which is his main job-, and in my opinion, failed to assuage Rogan and the audience on his takes on China demise. He justs doubled down with a stupid fucking grin and said that billions will die in a couple years, cites some cult of personality COVID chinese prime minister bad management. I've read takes say he's a CIA glow asset, and he certainly mentions he has contact with government agencies.

He doesn't speak too much about him, when Joe inquired about him he said he's an orphan.

He has a youtube channel now Peter Zeihan where he spreads thin his takes on everything, but the book is not to be overlooked.
 

Rams969

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Even if has nothing to with America I think that this information is still important for the topic: if any of you guys live in southern Europe you may know that there has been massive droughts here that are being very harmful for our crops and water supplies., many small towns are rationing water already, we are not currently dying.
Right now the situation is bad, I'm afraid the situation will get worst i the following years and many place of my country become basically deserts and famines start to happen here in Europe. I can send you articles but remember that this are in Spanish.
 
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i wonder if all those 1960s-1970s predictions for year 2000-2030 will accumulte or what now
coz it looks interesting now...
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4. Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind
Harvard Biologist George Wald, in 1970. As reported in: Free Market Environmentalism (Springer, 2001), Chapter 1

6. [We shall be able to produce] strawberries as large as apples for our great-great-grandchildren; raspberries and blackberries so big that one will suffice for a single person.
An enthusiast in horticulture, in 1901. As reported in: The Independent, Volume 53 (1901), p. 740

7. Democracy will be dead by 1950.
John Langdon-Davies, in 1936. A short history of the future (Dodd, Mead & Company, 1936), p. 125

8. The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty – a fad.
The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Ford's lawyer, Horace Rackham, not to invest in the Ford Motor Company. In: The Truth about Henry Ford (1922) by Sarah T. Bushnell, p. 57

https://libquotes.com/predictions-that-didnt-happen (mood)

10. Steve Balmer's epic comment on the iPhone:

There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.

Steve Ballmer
 
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