The Future of the Auto Industry

[bnuungus]

I work in the auto-industry and my company helps to test parts of a car on the assembly line. We work a lot with GM and Ford as clients as well as some other OEMs and car manufacturers. We all know the general plan for selling solely electric cars within the next decade or so but what scares me is the fact that neither GM nor Ford seem to be developing anything remotely affordable to your average person. Ford came out with the Mach-E and the Lightning, both of which are over $50k if you buy from a dealer. GM came out with the Lyriq and is coming out with the Celestiq next year. The Lyriq is priced at around $64K and the Celestiq will be

drum roll please
THREE HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS!!
(side note: I've seen this thing in person and yes it is quite an impressive car but it's no way worth that much)

Even if you're able to afford paying a loan every single month to buy one of these things, repairing the car should anything go wrong is going to be nearly impossible due to how electrically complex these things are. Everything is connected to a module, modules that no mechanic wants to touch. I personally live in an area that's extremely rough on cars so I'm guessing any of those machines will only last around 5 years at most before you need to buy a new one. You think your average person can pay off a loan that big in 5 years? I make a pretty decent salary and I definitely couldn't.

It just seems that both these companies are giving no thought whatsoever to developing a car that the general public could afford and as prices go up, more and more people will be left with not being able to afford private transportation, and since public transportation is pretty much non-existent (in the US and Canada at least) it's going to leave many people without a way to get around. Hopefully there are some projects in the works that I simply haven't been contracted to help work on and therefore know nothing about, but from what I've seen planned for the next few years at least does not point to either Ford or GM developing any electric vehicle that's affordable. I'm also interested to see if there's going to be much of a market for used electric vehicles. I'm leaning towards no due to the cost of repairs, but I'd be interested to hear your thoughts.

 

[EzzyCrafts]

Electric vehicles are only for the purpose of enhancing the ability for corpos and governments to track what you're doing and and where at all times, lulz

Then they lobby the media saying that it's 'environmentally better' and making people feel guilt for something they shouldn't have to worry about in the first place:

you charge the electric car with the electric car charger, what charges the charger? Power plants? Alright then buddy boy, what do the power plants run on?

This stuff is only happening in burgertown...

 

[№56]

We all know the general plan for selling solely electric cars within the next decade or so

I dont pay attention to the news and had assumed this was all empty rhetoric. How serious is it? Sounds poorly thought-out, to say the least.

 

[bnuungus]

I dont pay attention to the news and had assumed this was all empty rhetoric. How serious is it? Sounds poorly thought-out, to say the least.

They've invested a lot of money to switch to electric so I'd say they're pretty serious. And yes it is poorly thought out. No one has given any thought to the infrastructure needed to maintain a car-centric society with all electric cars. We won't be able to go on long road trips anymore bc you can only go for a couple hours before needing to recharge the car. We don't have enough power on the power grid to run charging stations to everyone's homes. Electric cars are much heavier than normal cars which increase road degradation which means more road construction, which is already a huge toll on already bankrupt city budgets. It's poorly thought out but it doesn't matter to the people who have invested money into all electric vehicles. They won't have to deal with the downsides of infrastructure failing, so they don't care. If we continue on the trajectory that we're currently on, then there will be some form of collapse. Whether it be on the infrastructure side with roads or the power grid, or on the automotive side where people won't be able to afford cars at all and thus the car companies themselves lose business is yet to be seen. I'm hoping there's going to be some sort of solution in the very-near future, but the problem is that any solution that will actually make a difference and not just be a band-aid will take years upon years of planning and construction so it's very likely that whatever crisis we're heading towards will happen before the solutions to that crisis are put in place, if they even are put in place at all.

 

[Milkington]

Electric vehicles are only for the purpose of enhancing the ability for corpos and governments to track what you're doing and and where at all times, lulz

Then they lobby the media saying that it's 'environmentally better' and making people feel guilt for something they shouldn't have to worry about in the first place:

you charge the electric car with the electric car charger, what charges the charger? Power plants? Alright then buddy boy, what do the power plants run on?

This stuff is only happening in burgertown...

Power plants run on a combination of nuclear, renewables, and hydrocarbons. So there are already less emissions with electric cars.

The difference is that power plants are being made environmentally friendly, as they can be replaced with nuclear or wind or water power. This means the emissions will go down even further with time.

 

[SolidStateSurvivor]

We all know the general plan for selling solely electric cars within the next decade or so but what scares me is the fact that neither GM nor Ford seem to be developing anything remotely affordable to your average person.

That's why this entire plan has been screwed from the beginning. They have yet to introduce an electric car that is economically viable, and from my understanding getting even a secondhand used electric car is a real crapshoot because if the battery is degraded replacing it is absurdly expensive.

I mean there's no reason we can't have semi affordable cars on par with late 90s Toyotas in terms of quality other than bullshit government regulations regarding emissions right?

And I know I'm not alone in hating just how much tablets and other tech has been integrated into newer cars. Needlessly bloats the price and makes them a pain to work on. As the cars get "smarter" your ownership and control of them will only diminish.

Lainchan has a good thread on this topic as well.

 

[№56]

That's why this entire plan has been screwed from the beginning. They have yet to introduce an electric car that is economically viable, and from my understanding getting even a secondhand used electric car is a real crapshoot because if the battery is degraded replacing it is absurdly expensive.

I mean there's no reason we can't have semi affordable cars on par with late 90s Toyotas in terms of quality other than bullshit government regulations regarding emissions right?

And I know I'm not alone in hating just how much tablets and other tech has been integrated into newer cars. Needlessly bloats the price and makes them a pain to work on. As the cars get "smarter" your ownership and control of them will only diminish.

Lainchan has a good thread on this topic as well.

The BMW microtransaction thing confirms my suspicion that the video game industry is being used as a testing ground to see how much BS consumers can be conned into accepting.

 

[Yabba]

Hopefully this will fail and new companies will rise to take Fords place. I'm just worried the government will just bail them out

 

[Brapuccino]

From what I understand things are moving towards removing "ownership" from the equation, instead acquiring a vehicle will be a rent agreement of sorts (like they're already doing now). Subscription based personal motor vehicles.

 

[SolidStateSurvivor]

The BMW microtransaction thing confirms my suspicion that the video game industry is being used as a testing ground to see how much BS consumers can be conned into accepting.

Frankly the term "micro transaction" needs to be ditched all together in regards to gaming. It was applicable 15 years ago when it was a mobile game trying to literally nickel and dime you (the infamous Horse Armor from Elder Scrolls was only $2.50) when now triple A games offer tokens priced at $20 or even $100.
This BMW subscription, for a service already built into the car, will run you $18 a month, or $450 so long as you own the car. That's not just a "microtransaction," that's a commitment.
Modern video games merely brought out the worst in people, the publishers perfected the art of distributing dopamine for profit. Just look at the patents for "skill based matchmaking" that Activision have gone for.

From what I understand things are moving towards removing "ownership" from the equation, instead acquiring a vehicle will be a rent agreement of sorts (like they're already doing now). Subscription based personal motor vehicles.

It's not just vehicles, it's everything really. "You will own nothing and be happy" isn't some far off prophecy, it's the current reality for most, it's why TPTB are braggadocios in asserting it to the narrative. Most people do monthly payments for their cars, most people are forced into renting homes. The unfortunate reality appears to be that this is no longer just a stepping stone to grinding out eventual ownership of these things, but rather the new reality of life; debt slavery.
What is left now is how far can the people be pushed? To what extent are they willing to sacrifice their ownership to ulterior powers?

 

[Jordshire]

My opinion is that the major switch to full electric fleets isn't actually gonna happen like the automakers are claiming, and that they'll be forced to push back zero-emissions regulations and continue selling gas cars until we see some sort of major breakthrough in battery technology. I think we'll continue seeing increased adoption of luxury ev's, and ev's for commercial use like the Tesla Semi but even if energy wasn't a problem we literally can't produce enough precious metals for everyone to drive Ev's everywhere. I think that's why we mostly see these turbo-expensive cars being made because auto-makers understand that it's not feasible to market or produce an "everyman's" ev yet.

A couple other reasons I think our current, big lithium battery ev's only work because of low adoption

- Electricity is cheap meaning recharging is cheap(er than refueling) however simple supply and demand means that price is going to keep increasing with adoption, but more importantly there's not any road taxes on electricity (in the US)!! Once enough people switch over from gas that we can't maintain our roads that will change and charging your Tesla will become much more expensive

- Charging takes longer than refueling and won't be any shorter if there's a line. High adoption areas are already having a hard time building sufficient charging stations and artificially imposed government mandates to sell more ev's will only make the problem worse.

 

[punishedgnome]

From what I understand things are moving towards removing "ownership" from the equation, instead acquiring a vehicle will be a rent agreement of sorts (like they're already doing now). Subscription based personal motor vehicles.

I think so too. There are not enough resources on planet Earth for everyone to have their own personal car, gas or electric. In 50 years time your average person is not going to own a car and will get around through a combination of public transport and easy to access rental vehicles that you will use for road trips, moving etc. Kind of like how you can go rent a regular sized pickup from U-Haul right now if you don't own your own pickup and use it to cart stuff around. I think there'll be widely available smart car/fiat sized electric rentals.


That being said, I just bought a brand new 4x4 Jeep Renegade. Vroom Vroom motherfuckers.

 

[bnuungus]

My opinion is that the major switch to full electric fleets isn't actually gonna happen like the automakers are claiming, and that they'll be forced to push back zero-emissions regulations and continue selling gas cars until we see some sort of major breakthrough in battery technology.

I was inclined to believe so until I worked very closely with these companies and learned that they are investing all of their efforts into making only electric cars. My hope is that these companies will fail but I also doubt that due to stuff like GM being very heavily involved with the US military.

 

[Big Bill Hell's]

If these companies gave a shit about the planet, they'd make products that can be easily repaired with readily available parts. Whether that be ICE or EV. Driving a 1999 Toyota Camry for 30 years will always be more environmentally friendly than pumping out EV shit boxes to the masses every 5-10 years when the batteries stop working and they cost 6-15k to replace.

The ultimate goal is for everyone to own nothing. Rent forever. Be a completely dependent mindless consumer. Environmentalism is just the front for it.

 

[bnuungus]

Reviving this thread to make some edits:

• The Celestiq is a bespoke product and they're only going to be making like 2 of them a day so it's safe to say that they had their fun and will likely start focusing on lower end cars
• The electric versions of lower end cars will be built in Mexico which explains why I hadn't heard much of them as I currently don't work with those assembly plants as often

Regarding that last point, even if those cars are more affordable will there really be a used market for them? I would be inclined to say no but I'd be interested in what others think.

 

[Orlando Smooth]

Call it cope if you want, but I think a lot of these regulations mandating X% of cars sold to be electric or banning the sale new new ICEs after some date will magically disappear once the industry, investors, and regulators realize just how impossible this is. We don't have the grid for it, since trade with Russia and China has broken down we don't have the raw materials for it (and even if we did it would require raping the earth to obtain them), charging is a nontrivial problem for people who don't own their own garages or commute to workplaces that will install chargers, the supply chain to manufacture them is fucked, and it's all incredibly expensive. It would be a hell of a lot smarter to target smaller niches (e.g., lawn mowers) and slowly scale up instead of trying to change things, at scale, in such a short time. It's just not going to work.


View: https://youtube.com/watch?v=Qf85EuQKWeQ

 

[LostintheCycle]

Reviving this thread to make some edits:

• The Celestiq is a bespoke product and they're only going to be making like 2 of them a day so it's safe to say that they had their fun and will likely start focusing on lower end cars
• The electric versions of lower end cars will be built in Mexico which explains why I hadn't heard much of them as I currently don't work with those assembly plants as often

Regarding that last point, even if those cars are more affordable will there really be a used market for them? I would be inclined to say no but I'd be interested in what others think.

Thank you for the update, I am watching this thread since I'm interested in this issue, particularly because you offer an 'insider' perspective rather than the mumblings of a know-nothing journalist shill. There's the whole conundrum of how the hell they're going to pull this off in the next few years, so I am interested if they actually will or if their plan will flop.
It's interesting that they are actually going to try make low end EV's, I am interested to see whether they're going to extort people's money by making them hard-to-repair pieces of junk.

 

[bnuungus]

Call it cope if you want, but I think a lot of these regulations mandating X% of cars sold to be electric or banning the sale new new ICEs after some date will magically disappear once the industry, investors, and regulators realize just how impossible this is. We don't have the grid for it, since trade with Russia and China has broken down we don't have the raw materials for it (and even if we did it would require raping the earth to obtain them), charging is a nontrivial problem for people who don't own their own garages or commute to workplaces that will install chargers, the supply chain to manufacture them is fucked, and it's all incredibly expensive. It would be a hell of a lot smarter to target smaller niches (e.g., lawn mowers) and slowly scale up instead of trying to change things, at scale, in such a short time. It's just not going to work.


View: https://youtube.com/watch?v=Qf85EuQKWeQ

It's inevitable that it will collapse in some way but I'm worried about the damage that this will cause first. Like I said above both GM and Ford (I'm sure other companies are too but I can't concretely verify that) are spending a lot of money to get this to actually happen and it reeks of investors who want to make a quick buck off of the initial boom of the tech and then just leave everyone else to deal with the consequences. I seriously doubt there will be any real investment money being put into reverting to gas cars. You could argue that "oh well it will be easy to revert back to gas cars because the technology is already very well defined" and while to a certain extent that's true, it's also very far from reality. Going back to gas cars will require a similar amount of money thrown at the industry due to the insane task of changing what goes on in assembly plants. "Now that we're making a fundamentally different car we need to repurpose this line and now that feeds back over here which is now wrong and now this whole process is fucked and now we have to reroute these robots on these new paths..." and so on. No one person could ever get a full grasp of how exactly an assembly plant operates. They work because thousands of different companies have arranged different puzzle pieces that multiple different departments of big auto companies were able to make bigger puzzle pieces that eventually fit together enough to run with only a couple major mishaps a day. This also doesn't even get into the cost of new tooling for on-the-line testing as any time there's a major update to a car, new tooling is almost always required and while those tools only cost a few thousand dollars each, there are tens (probably hundreds honestly) of thousands of those tools in any one plant. So while we might have a very good grasp of how to make gas cars, reverting back to making them will require some serious cash and as I said above I kind of doubt any investors will want to put similar amounts of money into reverting to gas cars as they are willing to throw money at EVs.

The end result of all this? I mean it's impossible to say but seeing what Ford and GM have concretely planned out for the next 5-10 years it seems very likely to me that all EVs will be a reality for a while. It will collapse because our infrastructure is not ready to handle it, but my guess is that it will cause a solid 15-20 years of car buying and maintenance being absolute hell for normal people. The only way this won't happen is if full EVs never become a reality but given the amount of work that they've already put into making them happen I kind of doubt we'll get that outcome.

It's interesting that they are actually going to try make low end EV's, I am interested to see whether they're going to extort people's money by making them hard-to-repair pieces of junk.

I'm interested to see too. I'm picking up more jobs from Mexico so I have no doubt I'll have better info about this in the future. I'll keep periodically updating this thread.

 

[Jackal]

For the price of one of those cars, i could just move to western europe or netherlands and start walking everywhere i go, or take the train.

 

[SolidStateSurvivor]

EU To End Sales Of New Gasoline And Diesel Cars In 2035

The new rules target 55% CO2 emission reductions for new cars and 50% for new vans from 2030 to 2034 compared to 2021 levels, as well as 100% CO2 emission reductions for both new cars and vans from 2035, the EU said today.

Germany was the last hold out until the EU approved their condition on "e-fuels"

Germany wanted sales of new cars with internal combustion engines if they run on e-fuels to continue beyond 2035, and it got it late last week.

Bold of them to think the EU will last that long