I never said I support or don't support liberalism. I myself am an Agnostic and I'm generally speaking liberal- but I've not asserted anything about geography, and only asserted a ratio of less intelligent people believing in God than not.
Fair enough
He has to sell Tesla stock to liquidate money in order to purchase the company, because a lot of his money is locked up in the stock market and cannot be easily liquidated-- whether or not this is him not believing in Tesla, I don't know.
That's true, but it just moves the problem - no competent businessman would withdraw stocks from a successful company in order to pursue a bad purchase - and this isn't just a case of him thinking it was a good purchase and being mistaken (which would be forgivable as mere incompetence), he went ahead with it and sold his stock even after everyone told him this was a terrible idea.
This would be like Richard Branson selling stock in Virgin to buy a majority stake in a failing web enterprise - it's bad business.
His money being tied up in stocks doesn't excuse it - it was a stupid purchase to begin with, and short-changing himself to do it made it a monumentally stupid purchase.
The fact that he's making stupid purchases with his investors money isn't just incompetence, it's immoral.
Either he's stupid, or he doesn't see Tesla as being as reliable a stock as he leads everyone to believe.
For my own curiosity, do you hold stocks and shares? Additionally, are you aware of the concept of diversification? You're correct that the self-driving cars hype is dying down. You're also correct that other EV manufacturers are eating Tesla for lunch in terms of sales- as echoed by decreasing the purchase price for a Tesla car to meet with demand.
I mostly own index funds as they are far more reliable. I know about diversification - that doesn't mean I should buy into bad stocks on the off chance they turn out to be good - especially if those bad stocks are vastly overpriced by all estimates. And DOUBLY especially if those stocks are in companies who don't actually sell worthwhile products, and operate largely on hype - that's not just high-risk, that's a bad investment.
If you're buying Tesla stock to diversify because "it's paying out well right now" - fair enough, just be careful to get out before the house of cards collapses. But buying stocks because you think they will give a return is a far cry from believing in the company or the man behind it. You didn't present an argument that Tesla was good to buy for money, you presented an argument that Tesla was a genuinely forward-thinking and innovative company, and that's simply not the case. It's also dangerous as you will play right into Musks hands - believing the stocks can only ever go up because of claim after claim right until they all collapse under you. This is exactly what happened to a lot of crypto investors and they deserved the losses they got, since they weren't paying attention and valued hype more than the ability to deliver a tangible service.
This is correct- but increasing Petrol and Diesel prices, make a regular combustion car an interesting question. Your point about batteries is correct, but this applies to all electronics- there is a hidden cost here in resources as Lithium is not plentiful and Lithium Ion batteries have their risks as you've quite rightly pointed out later. On the contrary... Sodium-Ion Batteries. If I was purchasing a car, I'd go for a secondhand manual transmission car- preferably a decade old so I know it will last and so I know it's not completely impossible to do repairs due to computer components. You're only sort of correct on the points about the secondhand market. People still sell secondhand electronics like phones, PCs, Laptops and the like without any issues. There is nothing here that says and stamps with an iron fist that you cannot sell secondhand teslas- similarly nothing saying you can't repair them(though I don't know how difficult repairs are).
The difference is that if a phone
loses 10% of it's total battery life per year, it's not a huge deal - people are realistically at home frequently, phones are not expensive to charge, and only having 6 hours of charge rather than 8 hours is not a big deal - even then, people still complain when their phone loses capacity.
A loss of 10% battery life for a car is much more significant, as it affects mileage. You have a point in that, a driver who uses their car maybe ~1 hour a day going to and from work in a small city (a 30 minute trip each way) probably has nothing to worry about, but telling someone that their 5 year old Tesla won't be able to make it the 100km to the next charging station is a big deal.
Phones are also quite cheap, comparatively. Replacing your phone because the battery only holds 60% of it's original charge is a viable proposition - replacing your car is not. If buying a second hand Tesla means replacing the battery, that essentially doubles the cost of the car, since the vast majority of it's cost and weight is in batteries.
Also, the majority of electronics available second hand are between 1 and 5 years old. Cars can last reliably up to 10 years, and many can surpass 20 years - that is significant when it comes to battery life. Comparing Electronic Cars to Electronic Computers on the used market is not a fair comparison at all.
Individual technologies when taken alone, are incredibly hard to argue against their advantages, but when taken all together as a cohesive whole with all the other technologies they compound and worsen- but this is a societal point. Economically it's good for investors.
Maybe some of us want a future where industries operate on more than just what makes money.
You're correct, and I think this particular point is fine. Not everything needs to be innovation. Apple is like 7% of the S&P500(of course Tesla isn't but it's just a point on how it doesn't have to be particularly innovative to be used).
The problem is that you claimed directly that considering Musk a scammer was unjustified because Tesla is innovative. Now you agree that Tesla isn't actually innovative.
Given that they aren't innovative, do you concede the point that Musk continually promising everything from
full self driving by 2020, to
money-making robotaxis that never matetrialised essentially makes him a con artist, since he has essentially convinced everyone that his non-innovative market-share-losing car company is actually worth more than the rest of the American car industry combined, based entirely on false promises?
Thanks for the information- why do you think BYDs aren't sold in the US currently? Economics issue, Regulation issue? You also asserted Tesla will plummet, and now you're asserting it will decline over time- which is it?
Tesla will have a major plummet in a year or so to correct it's price when the jig is up and everyone realises full-self-driving and the Tesla Semi are never going to happen, then it will continue to decline over time as it loses market-share to better manufacturers.
There's probably some regulation in the US that BYD still needs to pass before they can be sold. I have no doubt they will do whatever they need to do in order to pass it, and then they will start to dominate the market.
Yeah, well it's tax dollars and not many other companies are doing equivalent work- so of course government grants are gonna go to him. Its not a physics problem as the problem is expressed easily, it's an engineering problem of efficiency and effectiveness.
It's not a physics problem because it's hard to understand or can't be quantified, it's a physics problem because the issue is that there are certain physical limitations, we can't simply engineer our way around them, unless we come up with a completely new way of doing things, which I don't expect anyone to come up with in our lifetimes (let alone SpaceX)
As far as physics, yes there's no special knowledge. But as far as what types of rockets actually work, and why, and how to go about making them, etc- there's a LOT. This holds for all things of any complexity. Here's an excellent talk from
Jonathon Blow on how things that are more complex, are the quickest to lose knowledge on. Regardless, you're exactly correct that you can't change the laws of physics. If it violates the laws of physics, it's a very obvious scam- but it's not it's just an engineering problem.
Rocket technology has remained fundamentally unchanged for the last 50 years. We already have some of the most efficient fuels and propulsion systems possible, developing anything further (short of RADICAL new technologies which SpaceX really isn't looking to provide) such as bending space time, we are essentially stuck dealing with relatively-good-quality fuel and a LOT of required energy to move a payload.
Rocket fuel is already quite efficient at what it does, the problem is the sheer amount of force required.
This insane amount of force requires an insane amount of energy, which is why going to space is so expensive.
Even if it WAS purely an engineering problem and not just a lack of knowledge, SpaceX seems to think that we can just work around the huge expense by implementing reusability, but that's not viable for a multitude of reasons, the most important of which being the extra requirement for nearly double the fuel load in order to power the thrusters for landing - essentially nullifying any potential gains, especially since fuel is already the heaviest part of any spacecraft (and therefore the most expensive to actually fly into space) and is not reusable. This is why the Shuttle had the wise idea to use more conventional landing approaches and gliding, rather than trying to land upright - and even with that advantage, it still turned out to not be economically viable because of how damaging re-entry is for spacecraft and long they were out of service for between flights. These are not problems SpaceX is going to fix. Their rocket landing demonstration a few years ago was admittedly a very neat trick - and it's definitely cool and interesting as a concept - but if they have convinced you that their system is therefore viable, you have been swindled.
In 2016, SpaceX's cost per launch for the Falcon 9 was
$62 Million, in 2022 it was....
$67 Million
If their reusability claim was accurate, their launch costs should be going down significantly year on year.
I am not a rocket engineer, my degree is in computer science, so I could very much be wrong here, I just wish someone from NASA was here to actually comment on this thread - I'm sure they would have a lot to say about Musk and SpaceX.
The easiest way to get people to come out of the woodwork, is to be wrong on the internet
You've provided me a lot of excellent material to read through and consider.
Thanks, I'm glad you're able to engage with it rather than being a mindless pro-Musk zealot. I hope I don't come across as a mindless anti-Musk zealot.
*Shrugs* That affects him legally. I think he's a great guy for people who love speculative high-risk, high-growth stocks.
Not really. Most of the people who invest in his offerings will end up broke. Just look at what happened to those who invested in SolarCity (and what will happen to those who invested in StarLink). Investing in a high-risk company that ends up producing something of value and growing can be very rewarding, both for the investors and the company. Investing in a hype company that produces nothing can only benefit the handful of investors who get in and out quickly enough to ride the hype wave without staying long enough to see the crash. Even if they end up making money, it's a net negative for society as a whole - is making a bit of extra money really worth that level of degeneration?
Why not do high-risk investments in companies that are more likely to go somewhere - not only will the value go up and you'll get your high share prices, but you'll also be getting big dividends year on year which will make a good next egg, plus you're potentially helping your fellow man.
Investing in literally anything other than Musk enterprises is a better deal for everyone involved - except Musk. No wonder he has so much monetary value (it's all fake, though).
Yeah, you're correct in all of this- but that's capitalism for you though. Musk isn't really a scam so much as just unsustainable growth based on speculation that you need to cut the weeds to find where it leads(SO MANY Tech startups are growth-based, and unsustainable built on similar speculation). Same with Bezos. I don't support the guy, never met him personally, I support my own portfolio though
Unsustainable growth based on speculation is already a scam, but Musk goes one step further - we're not just talking about some companies that are doing honest business and might end up doing well or not depending on how the market goes, we're talking about companies which deliberately lie, overpromise and make all sorts of wild claims to jack up their share prices, convince people to invest, and then evaporate.
It's a textbook scam. This isn't just "capitalism being capitalism", this is fraud and it needs to stop.